November looks good for Iowa Democrats
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By Charlotte Eby | Sunday, July 20, 2008 |
Iowa Democrats are highly optimistic about their prospects in the November election, and the latest numbers reveal why.
After the record-breaking turnout at the Iowa caucuses, the Democratic Party has amassed a voter registration advantage that has grown to more than 90,000 in Iowa.
Democrats also will have presidential candidate Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Tom Harkin at the top of the ticket to help drive turnout.
It’s been a relatively quick shift from Republican dominance in Iowa to one where Democrats hold a majority of congressional seats, the governor’s office and both chambers of the Iowa Legislature.
One big indicator that the political environment in Iowa had changed came in 2006 with Democrat Dave Loebsack’s defeat of popular U.S. Rep. Jim Leach.
This year, Democrats have their eye on taking out one incumbent in particular — Republican U.S. Rep. Tom Latham.
Becky Greenwald of Perry is challenging Latham in the sprawling 4th Congressional District in central and north-central Iowa.
Latham has fended off strong Democratic challengers in the past. But his district, which includes Mason City, Ames and suburban counties surrounding Des Moines, has become more of a swing district as Democratic registration has swelled. Democrats now outnumber Republicans in the district for the first time ever.
First though, Greenwald will have to raise enough money to compete with Latham’s war chest, which sat at more than $700,000 as of the last filing period.
If Greenwald is competitive in raising money, the 4th District race could be the race to watch this fall.
The fight by Republicans to regain control in the Iowa Legislature could be a difficult one this year. Several GOP lawmakers are not seeking re-election, which adds to the party’s challenge.
But the GOP will have a few issues to help them raise campaign cash among their business donors: Democrats’ votes to expand collective bargaining rights and to ban smoking in public places. The smoking ban especially could be unpopular in rural Iowa.
House Minority Leader Christopher Rants, R-Sioux City, likes to point out it takes just a few hundred votes in a handful of districts to win back the majority in the House, where Democrats hold only a slight edge.
Iowans aren’t afraid to split their ballots up between the parties.
When Iowa Democrats swept in 2006, Republican Bill Northey coasted to victory to win the open secretary of agriculture seat. State Auditor David Vaudt, a Republican, also won re-election.
It’s a reminder to Democrats that even when the numbers look favorable, they might not predict what happens in the voting booth.
Charlotte Eby is Statehouse Bureau Chief for Lee Enterprises. Contact her at 515-243-0138 or chareby@aol.com.
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