Gas prices will probably be significantly cheaper overall next year. Yet the national average could still climb back above the $4-a-gallon threshold as soon as May, according to GasBuddy projections shared exclusively with CNN.
The good news is that GasBuddy, an app that tracks fuel prices, doesn't expect a repeat of this year's wild swings that at one point sent gas prices above $5 a gallon for the first time ever. That spike set off recession alarm bells, worsened inflation and crushed consumer confidence.
The national average for regular gas, a metric closely watched by Wall Street, Main Street and even the White House, is expected to drop to $3.49 a gallon in 2023, down roughly 50 cents from the average this year, according to GasBuddy.
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That cooldown could prove significant, translating to families spending an average of $277 less on fuel for the year. If that holds true, total U.S. gasoline spending would drop by about $55 billion, according to the forecast.
The bad news is GasBuddy expects the national average to climb from $3.10 a gallon today to a range of $3.52 to $4.05 in May as Americans hit the roads.
"2023 is not going to be a cakewalk for motorists. It could be expensive," Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNN. "The national average could breach $4 a gallon as early as May — and that's something that could last through much of the summer driving season."
Gas prices typically rise heading into the summer as Americans hit the road more during the warmer weather. In addition to the pickup in demand, refiners switch over to summer-grade gasoline, which is designed to improve air quality and costs more to produce.
The GasBuddy forecast calls for the daily national average to top out at as high as $4.25 a gallon in August before dropping toward $3 a gallon by the end of the year.
The federal government has issued similar projections to GasBuddy's.
Earlier this month, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said the national average is expected to average about $3.50 a gallon in 2023 as refineries continue to ramp up production of gasoline.
A person finishes pumping gas at a Shell gas station on April 01, 2022, in Houston, Texas.
The past year shows how difficult it can be to predict energy prices.
Virtually no one expected the spike to $5.02 a gallon in June. But everything changed after Russia invaded Ukraine, raising the specter of severe supply crunches.
Beyond the war, energy markets were rocked by a range of major forces, including China's COVID-19 lockdowns, recession fears, super-sized interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve and the White House's unprecedented use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
"Basically, curveballs coming from every direction," De Haan said, describing the swings in energy markets. "Extreme amounts of volatility. I don't think we've ever seen such an amount of volatility as we saw this year."
The 2022 experience means forecasts about 2023 should be taken with a grain of salt.
Rust in peace: Vehicles that are dying in 2023
Acura ILX
Never like the Acura Integra that it replaced, the ILX always seemed like a pretender to the throne. A half-hearted effort on Acura's part dating to 2013, the Acura Integra thankfully takes its slot for 2023.
Acura NSX
The second-generation NSX proved that hybrids didn't have to be boring. Yet as the world's exotic carmakers are planning to release hybrids, Acura is killing theirs despite the contemporary demeanor of the NSX.
Buick Encore
Seemingly, there will be no encore for the Encore, a diminutive subcompact SUV that once accounted for half of Buick's U.S. sales. Now it's outsold nearly 3-to-1 by the larger, cheaper Encore GX.
Chevrolet Spark
Diminutive in both size and price, this was the cheapest car in America. No, it wasn't speedy or sizable, but it was thrifty. A decent small car in a nation in love with large ones.
Chevrolet Trax
Tall and narrow, a new Chevrolet Trax is reportedly arriving for 2024. So maybe it's not dying so much as taking a very long nap.
Ford GT
This $500,000 Ford was an homage to its Le Mans-winning race cars of the 1960s. But as Ford shifts to an electrified lineup, an electric GT could always be a possibility. A gas-powered one? Evidently not.
Honda Insight
With the launch of a new Civic Hybrid, the need for a separate but same-size hybrid seems as if it came from the Department of Redundancy Department. But its visual eloquence will be missed.
Hyundai Accent
Still popular, this handsome little sedan is being replaced by the Venue SUV as Hyundai's cheapest model, although the Venue starts more than $2,300 higher.
Hyundai Ioniq
These Hyundai hybrids are being shown the door as Hyundai offers a number of hybrids across its lineup. But its name is being repurposed for an all-electric sub-brand, starting with the Ioniq 5.
Hyundai Veloster
With more versatile vehicles like the Elantra N and Kona N introduced into the Hyundai lineup, this unique model has seen its popularity plummet in the past two years. Arrivederci.
Infiniti Q60
The Q60 coupe receives the coup de grâce this year as Infiniti continues to suffer from a lack of a clear identity. This is the most fun of all its vehicles to drive, so its loss doesn't help Infiniti's image.
Lamborghini Aventador
Still sexy despite its age, this is the last year for this 12-cylinder supercar, which will replaced by an electrified model within a couple years. While it will be good, it won't be the same.
Mercedes-Benz A-Class
This was Mercedes-Benz's least expensive model in 2022, starting at less than $34,000. That honor now falls to the GLA crossover, at less than $37,000.
Nissan Rogue Sport
Filling the spot between the Rogue and the Kicks, the Rogue Sport appears absent from Nissan's 2023 lineup. The question is: Will anyone miss it?
Toyota Avalon
The car that wears the name of the island where King Arthur's body was taken upon his death is now joining the legendary king in eternity.
Volkswagen Passat
This American-built Passat bore little resemblance to its European counterpart, with little character or superb handling. Unsullied and faultlessly ordinary, it never captured the imagination.
Jeep Grand Cherokee WK
The old version of the Grand Cherokee stuck around as a lower cost alternative to its newer sibling. But the new one is so good, who wants the old one?
Ram ProMaster City
This one always looked kind of odd for a Ram, and that's because it's really Fiat Doblo cargo van. Yet its sales seemed solid, so its demise may mean something better is about to arrive.
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