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TRUMP: "Already, as a result of my administration's efforts, in 2018 drug prices experienced their single largest decline in 46 years."

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One indicator that tends to run well in advance of recessions: The National Federation of Independent Business measure of members' own subjective well-being, known as the small business optimism index. It peaked in the third quarter of 2004, while the American economy was growing faster than it is now, and then started falling until it bottomed out in early 2009.

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